Market Shift Benefits Established Beer Brands

Federal regulation requires label approval by The Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) of any alcoholic beverage prior to its sale to the public. We have collected and analyzed the data contained in these applications. BeerIntel’s analysis has identified two key trends.

Firstly, there is a clear cyclicality in the timing and frequency of beer label applications by manufacturers that aligns with the standard calendar year.

Secondly, new product label applications have decreased dramatically in 2025 over the prior three years.

Cyclicality

Our data shows a pattern of application submissions peaking in the first quarter and then dropping steadily quarter after quarter for the remainder of the calendar year. We see this pattern repeated in the data of 2022, 2023 & 2024.

This consistent frontloading of applications may be due to the timing of brewers across the county formalizing and committing to their intended annual brew schedules.

If we extrapolate this consistent stepped pattern, we expect 2025 to follow suit with application submissions decreasing precipitously for the remainder of the year.

Market Entrance Slowdown

In the first quarter of 2025, the rate at which manufacturers are applying for labels to bring new products to the beer market has reached a post-COVID world low. Our data shows first quarter filings are down substantially in 2025 from the previous three years. This could indicate a cooling of interest in bringing new products to market, possibly because of a decrease in consumer demand or possibly due to a reluctance to launch a new product in a market mired in uncertainty.

As reflected in our data, the decrease in new market entrants has the potential to lead to a less competitive market. With fewer innovative and disruptive offerings entering the market, the power of entrenched brands, and their distribution, will likely go unchallenged.

When the same data is analyzed at the more granular month over month level, our 2022 to Q1of 2025 Heat Map shows some fluctuation, with a trend of upticks in May, August & October but does not rebuke the larger annualized trend of applications being largely front loaded in each of the calendar years.

Caution has become the theme across industries. A general sense of uncertainty has sidelined many new investments and initiatives.

Perhaps the trepidation of the beer industry has created a void ready to be filled. While the ambient noise of competitors is at a low rumble this may be an ideal opportunity for brands to release products they have postponed bringing to the market.

Here at BeerIntel we will continue to follow this story as it plays out. If projections of economic downturn fail to materialize, or brands decide to swim against the current and reengage, we may see a reversal in this established cyclical trend and experience an uptick in submissions in the second quarter of 2025. That would be an interesting deviation from recent historical trends.

Stay tuned.

John G.

Write to John Gordon at

[email protected]